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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200209-200211

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
2
9
3
3
0
6
0
0
0
0
7
6
2
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
2
9
15
30
10
55
0
0
0
0
19
33
12
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
20
13
60
20
20
0
40
0
0
0
0
47
40
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
3
14
23
47
16
86
0
0
0
0
30
52
19
100

hitrate: 0.467 hitrate: 0.531
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.29 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 1.67 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.297
true Heidke skill score: 0.048 true Heidke skill score: 0.090
Kuipers skill score: 0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.297
true Kuipers skill score: 0.044 true Kuipers skill score: 0.076
threat score:
0.333 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.167 0.517 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.026 0.091 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.062 0.055 0.000
probability of detection:
0.571 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.211 0.909 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.455 0.000
samples: 15 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 23.44 %coverage: 100.00