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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
2
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
2
9
17
31
7
55
0
0
0
0
20
35
9
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
44
22
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
44
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
3
14
27
48
11
86
0
0
0
0
31
55
14
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.531
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.45 1.57 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.297
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.297
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.030
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.115 0.525 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.008 0.032 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.150 0.886 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.436 0.000
samples: 9 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 14.06 %coverage: 100.00