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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
1
8
3
1
5
9
0
3
1
4
7
7
7
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
1
8
16
29
7
52
0
3
1
4
20
35
9
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
14
5
38
14
5
24
43
0
14
5
19
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
2
13
25
45
11
81
0
5
2
6
31
55
14
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.531
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 1.29 0.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 1.49 0.44
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: 0.297
true Heidke skill score: -0.071 true Heidke skill score: 0.077
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: 0.297
true Kuipers skill score: -0.071 true Kuipers skill score: 0.067
threat score:
0.364 0.067 0.100
threat score:
0.167 0.500 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.160 -0.167 -0.038
equitable threat score:
0.070 0.019 0.038
probability of detection:
0.571 0.143 0.143
probability of detection:
0.200 0.829 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.889 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.442 0.750
samples: 21 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 32.81 %coverage: 100.00