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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
35
9
64
0
0
0
0
20
35
9
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
100
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
55
14
100
0
0
0
0
31
55
14
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.547
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.83 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.320
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.320
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.547 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.453 0.000
samples: 2 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 3.12 %coverage: 100.00