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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
0
7
1
0
7
8
0
1
8
9
6
3
15
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
0
7
22
5
21
48
0
1
8
9
27
8
29
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
8
0
29
4
0
29
33
0
4
33
38
25
13
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
0
11
34
8
33
75
0
2
13
14
42
13
45
100

hitrate: 0.542 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.17 2.67 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.26 6.00 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.313 Heidke skill score: -0.078
true Heidke skill score: 0.296 true Heidke skill score: 0.097
Kuipers skill score: 0.313 Kuipers skill score: -0.078
true Kuipers skill score: 0.363 true Kuipers skill score: 0.129
threat score:
0.625 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.172 0.098 0.267
equitable threat score:
0.520 -0.100 0.229
equitable threat score:
0.079 -0.022 0.151
probability of detection:
0.833 0.000 0.533
probability of detection:
0.185 0.625 0.276
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.286 1.000 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.286 0.896 0.111
samples: 24 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 37.50 %coverage: 100.00