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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
0
0
7
7
0
1
5
6
5
1
12
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
22
7
24
53
0
1
5
6
27
8
29
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
0
0
28
0
0
39
39
0
6
28
33
28
6
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
34
11
38
83
0
2
8
9
42
13
45
100

hitrate: 0.556 hitrate: 0.266
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 7.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 6.62 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.102
true Heidke skill score: 0.345 true Heidke skill score: 0.106
Kuipers skill score: 0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.102
true Kuipers skill score: 0.494 true Kuipers skill score: 0.144
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.385
threat score:
0.185 0.130 0.167
equitable threat score:
1.000 -0.051 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.116 0.008 0.084
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.417
probability of detection:
0.185 0.875 0.172
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.868 0.167
samples: 18 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 28.12 %coverage: 100.00