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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
3
7
0
2
7
9
2
0
2
4
5
3
12
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
3
7
22
7
24
53
2
0
2
4
27
8
29
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
5
15
35
0
10
35
45
10
0
10
20
25
15
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
5
11
34
11
38
83
3
0
3
6
42
13
45
100

hitrate: 0.350 hitrate: 0.188
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.40 3.00 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.26 6.62 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.025 Heidke skill score: -0.219
true Heidke skill score: 0.103 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: 0.025 Kuipers skill score: -0.219
true Kuipers skill score: 0.135 true Kuipers skill score: 0.016
threat score:
0.333 0.200 0.143
threat score:
0.097 0.130 0.065
equitable threat score:
0.172 0.075 -0.034
equitable threat score:
0.002 0.008 0.006
probability of detection:
0.600 0.667 0.167
probability of detection:
0.111 0.875 0.069
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.778 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.868 0.500
samples: 20 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 31.25 %coverage: 100.00