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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
10
15
31
1
1
4
6
0
1
0
1
7
12
19
38

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
10
15
31
20
2
9
31
0
1
0
1
26
13
24
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
26
39
82
3
3
11
16
0
3
0
3
18
32
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
16
24
49
32
3
14
49
0
2
0
2
41
21
38
100

hitrate: 0.184 hitrate: 0.127
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.43 0.50 0.05
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.19 2.38 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.224 Heidke skill score: -0.310
true Heidke skill score: -0.037 true Heidke skill score: -0.266
Kuipers skill score: -0.224 Kuipers skill score: -0.310
true Kuipers skill score: -0.047 true Kuipers skill score: -0.286
threat score:
0.188 0.059 0.000
threat score:
0.118 0.048 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.011 -0.059 -0.026
equitable threat score:
-0.178 -0.123 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.857 0.083 0.000
probability of detection:
0.231 0.154 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.806 0.833 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.806 0.935 1.000
samples: 38 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 60.32 %coverage: 100.00