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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
8
1
22
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
13
8
2
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
8
1
22
13
5
23
41
0
0
0
0
26
13
24
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
57
35
4
96
0
0
4
4
0
0
0
0
57
35
9
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
13
2
35
21
8
37
65
0
0
0
0
41
21
38
100

hitrate: 0.565 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.69 0.12 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.85 3.15 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.348 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.021 true Heidke skill score: 0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.348 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.017 true Kuipers skill score: 0.011
threat score:
0.591 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.371 0.102 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.059 -0.040 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.151 -0.085 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.500 0.385 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.409 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.409 0.878 0.000
samples: 23 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 36.51 %coverage: 100.00