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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
2
9
0
1
8
9
0
0
1
1
5
3
11
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
2
9
21
11
21
53
0
0
1
1
26
13
24
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
11
11
47
0
5
42
47
0
0
5
5
26
16
58
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
3
14
33
17
33
84
0
0
2
2
41
21
38
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.270
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.80 3.00 0.09
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.35 4.08 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: -0.095
true Heidke skill score: 0.180 true Heidke skill score: 0.041
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: -0.095
true Kuipers skill score: 0.243 true Kuipers skill score: 0.049
threat score:
0.556 0.091 0.091
threat score:
0.167 0.200 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.397 -0.044 0.040
equitable threat score:
0.049 0.001 0.026
probability of detection:
1.000 0.333 0.091
probability of detection:
0.192 0.846 0.042
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.444 0.889 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.444 0.792 0.000
samples: 19 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 30.16 %coverage: 100.00