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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
1
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
10
4
2
11
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
1
7
18
21
8
47
0
0
10
10
22
23
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
24
12
6
41
0
0
0
0
0
0
59
59
24
12
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
3
2
11
28
33
13
73
0
0
16
16
34
36
30
100

hitrate: 0.824 hitrate: 0.547
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 0.00 0.91
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 2.04 0.53
Heidke skill score: 0.735 Heidke skill score: 0.320
true Heidke skill score: 0.662 true Heidke skill score: 0.305
Kuipers skill score: 0.735 Kuipers skill score: 0.320
true Kuipers skill score: 0.676 true Kuipers skill score: 0.299
threat score:
0.571 0.000 0.909
threat score:
0.160 0.429 0.526
equitable threat score:
0.440 0.000 0.779
equitable threat score:
0.071 0.128 0.439
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.909
probability of detection:
0.182 0.913 0.526
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.429 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.429 0.553 0.000
samples: 17 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 26.56 %coverage: 100.00