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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
3
2
14
0
2
2
4
0
1
7
8
9
6
11
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
3
2
14
13
19
10
42
0
1
7
8
22
23
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
12
8
54
0
8
8
15
0
4
27
31
35
23
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
5
3
22
20
30
16
66
0
2
11
13
34
36
30
100

hitrate: 0.692 hitrate: 0.547
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.56 0.67 0.73
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.64 1.83 0.42
Heidke skill score: 0.538 Heidke skill score: 0.320
true Heidke skill score: 0.525 true Heidke skill score: 0.305
Kuipers skill score: 0.538 Kuipers skill score: 0.320
true Kuipers skill score: 0.525 true Kuipers skill score: 0.299
threat score:
0.643 0.250 0.583
threat score:
0.333 0.413 0.350
equitable threat score:
0.454 0.152 0.420
equitable threat score:
0.189 0.126 0.262
probability of detection:
1.000 0.333 0.636
probability of detection:
0.409 0.826 0.368
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.357 0.500 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.357 0.548 0.125
samples: 26 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 40.62 %coverage: 100.00