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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
3
1
11
0
0
1
1
0
0
4
4
7
3
6
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
3
1
11
15
20
14
49
0
0
4
4
22
23
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
44
19
6
69
0
0
6
6
0
0
25
25
44
19
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
5
2
17
23
31
22
77
0
0
6
6
34
36
30
100

hitrate: 0.688 hitrate: 0.484
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.57 0.33 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 2.13 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.531 Heidke skill score: 0.227
true Heidke skill score: 0.474 true Heidke skill score: 0.203
Kuipers skill score: 0.531 Kuipers skill score: 0.227
true Kuipers skill score: 0.444 true Kuipers skill score: 0.198
threat score:
0.636 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.269 0.385 0.211
equitable threat score:
0.354 -0.049 0.556
equitable threat score:
0.145 0.070 0.158
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.318 0.870 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 0.592 0.000
samples: 16 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00