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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199501-199503

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
17
15
45
6
4
2
12
0
0
0
0
19
21
17
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
17
15
45
6
4
2
12
0
0
0
0
19
21
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
30
26
79
11
7
4
21
0
0
0
0
33
37
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
30
26
79
11
7
4
21
0
0
0
0
33
37
30
100

hitrate: 0.298 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.37 0.57 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.37 0.57 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.053 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.064 true Heidke skill score: -0.064
Kuipers skill score: -0.053 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.064 true Kuipers skill score: -0.064
threat score:
0.255 0.138 0.000
threat score:
0.255 0.138 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.056 -0.017 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.056 -0.017 0.000
probability of detection:
0.684 0.190 0.000
probability of detection:
0.684 0.190 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.711 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.711 0.667 0.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00