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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199502-199504

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
16
14
45
7
1
4
12
0
0
0
0
22
17
18
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
16
14
45
7
1
4
12
0
0
0
0
22
17
18
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
28
25
79
12
2
7
21
0
0
0
0
39
30
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
28
25
79
12
2
7
21
0
0
0
0
39
30
32
100

hitrate: 0.281 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.05 0.71 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.05 0.71 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.079 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: -0.137 true Heidke skill score: -0.137
Kuipers skill score: -0.079 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: -0.131 true Kuipers skill score: -0.131
threat score:
0.288 0.036 0.000
threat score:
0.288 0.036 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.068 -0.106 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.068 -0.106 0.000
probability of detection:
0.682 0.059 0.000
probability of detection:
0.682 0.059 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.917 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.917 0.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00