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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199502-199504

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
13
9
39
5
4
8
17
0
0
1
1
22
17
18
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
13
9
39
5
4
8
17
0
0
1
1
22
17
18
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
23
16
68
9
7
14
30
0
0
2
2
39
30
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
23
16
68
9
7
14
30
0
0
2
2
39
30
32
100

hitrate: 0.386 hitrate: 0.386
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.77 1.00 0.06
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.77 1.00 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.079 Heidke skill score: 0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.043 true Heidke skill score: 0.043
Kuipers skill score: 0.079 Kuipers skill score: 0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.041 true Kuipers skill score: 0.041
threat score:
0.386 0.133 0.056
threat score:
0.386 0.133 0.056
equitable threat score:
0.067 -0.043 0.039
equitable threat score:
0.067 -0.043 0.039
probability of detection:
0.773 0.235 0.056
probability of detection:
0.773 0.235 0.056
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.564 0.765 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.564 0.765 0.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00