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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503-199505

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
9
25
45
4
3
5
12
0
0
0
0
15
12
30
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
9
25
45
4
3
5
12
0
0
0
0
15
12
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
16
44
79
7
5
9
21
0
0
0
0
26
21
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
16
44
79
7
5
9
21
0
0
0
0
26
21
53
100

hitrate: 0.246 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.00 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.132 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: -0.009 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: -0.132 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: -0.011 true Kuipers skill score: -0.011
threat score:
0.224 0.143 0.000
threat score:
0.224 0.143 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.023 0.026 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.023 0.026 0.000
probability of detection:
0.733 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.733 0.250 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.756 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.756 0.750 0.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00