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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503-199505

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
8
20
39
4
4
9
17
0
0
1
1
15
12
30
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
8
20
39
4
4
9
17
0
0
1
1
15
12
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
14
35
68
7
7
16
30
0
0
2
2
26
21
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
14
35
68
7
7
16
30
0
0
2
2
26
21
53
100

hitrate: 0.281 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.60 1.42 0.03
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.60 1.42 0.03
Heidke skill score: -0.079 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.038 true Heidke skill score: 0.038
Kuipers skill score: -0.079 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.047 true Kuipers skill score: 0.047
threat score:
0.256 0.160 0.033
threat score:
0.256 0.160 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.023 0.020 0.016
equitable threat score:
0.023 0.020 0.016
probability of detection:
0.733 0.333 0.033
probability of detection:
0.733 0.333 0.033
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.718 0.765 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.718 0.765 0.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00