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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
10
26
45
3
5
4
12
0
0
0
0
12
15
30
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
10
26
45
3
5
4
12
0
0
0
0
12
15
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
18
46
79
5
9
7
21
0
0
0
0
21
26
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
18
46
79
5
9
7
21
0
0
0
0
21
26
53
100

hitrate: 0.246 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.75 0.80 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.75 0.80 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.132 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.031 true Heidke skill score: 0.031
Kuipers skill score: -0.132 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.039 true Kuipers skill score: 0.039
threat score:
0.188 0.227 0.000
threat score:
0.188 0.227 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.012 0.098 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.012 0.098 0.000
probability of detection:
0.750 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.750 0.333 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.583 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.583 0.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00