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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
10
22
39
5
4
8
17
0
1
0
1
12
15
30
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
10
22
39
5
4
8
17
0
1
0
1
12
15
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
18
39
68
9
7
14
30
0
2
0
2
21
26
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
18
39
68
9
7
14
30
0
2
0
2
21
26
53
100

hitrate: 0.193 hitrate: 0.193
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.25 1.13 0.03
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.25 1.13 0.03
Heidke skill score: -0.211 Heidke skill score: -0.211
true Heidke skill score: -0.050 true Heidke skill score: -0.050
Kuipers skill score: -0.211 Kuipers skill score: -0.211
true Kuipers skill score: -0.064 true Kuipers skill score: -0.064
threat score:
0.159 0.143 0.000
threat score:
0.159 0.143 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.034 -0.020 -0.017
equitable threat score:
-0.034 -0.020 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.583 0.267 0.000
probability of detection:
0.583 0.267 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.821 0.765 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.821 0.765 1.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00