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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
2
2
14
18
8
11
14
33
12
15
30
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
2
2
14
18
8
11
14
33
12
15
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
4
11
4
4
25
32
14
19
25
58
21
26
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
4
11
4
4
25
32
14
19
25
58
21
26
53
100

hitrate: 0.316 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.20 1.10		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.20 1.10
Heidke skill score: -0.026 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.160 true Heidke skill score: -0.160
Kuipers skill score: -0.026 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.155 true Kuipers skill score: -0.155
threat score:
0.125 0.065 0.286		 threat score:
0.125 0.065 0.286
equitable threat score:
0.050 -0.104 -0.106		 equitable threat score:
0.050 -0.104 -0.106
probability of detection:
0.167 0.133 0.467		 probability of detection:
0.167 0.133 0.467
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.889 0.576		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.889 0.576
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00