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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
12
20
39
2
6
9
17
0
1
0
1
9
19
29
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
12
20
39
2
6
9
17
0
1
0
1
9
19
29
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
21
35
68
4
11
16
30
0
2
0
2
16
33
51
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
21
35
68
4
11
16
30
0
2
0
2
16
33
51
100

hitrate: 0.228 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.33 0.89 0.03
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.33 0.89 0.03
Heidke skill score: -0.158 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: 0.015 true Heidke skill score: 0.015
Kuipers skill score: -0.158 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: 0.019 true Kuipers skill score: 0.019
threat score:
0.171 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.171 0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.024 0.014 -0.017
equitable threat score:
0.024 0.014 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.778 0.316 0.000
probability of detection:
0.778 0.316 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.821 0.647 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.821 0.647 1.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00