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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
4
6
3
1
14
18
5
17
11
33
9
19
29
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
4
6
3
1
14
18
5
17
11
33
9
19
29
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
7
11
5
2
25
32
9
30
19
58
16
33
51
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
7
11
5
2
25
32
9
30
19
58
16
33
51
100

hitrate: 0.228 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.95 1.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.95 1.14
Heidke skill score: -0.158 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: -0.323 true Heidke skill score: -0.323
Kuipers skill score: -0.158 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: -0.311 true Kuipers skill score: -0.311
threat score:
0.071 0.028 0.216
threat score:
0.071 0.028 0.216
equitable threat score:
0.004 -0.167 -0.169
equitable threat score:
0.004 -0.167 -0.169
probability of detection:
0.111 0.053 0.379
probability of detection:
0.111 0.053 0.379
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.944 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.944 0.667
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00