CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
8
16
39
4
7
6
17
0
0
1
1
19
15
23
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
8
16
39
4
7
6
17
0
0
1
1
19
15
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
14
28
68
7
12
11
30
0
0
2
2
33
26
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
14
28
68
7
12
11
30
0
0
2
2
33
26
40
100

hitrate: 0.404 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.05 1.13 0.04
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.05 1.13 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.105 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.131 true Heidke skill score: 0.131
Kuipers skill score: 0.105 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.137 true Kuipers skill score: 0.137
threat score:
0.349 0.280 0.043
threat score:
0.349 0.280 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.067 0.123 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.067 0.123 0.026
probability of detection:
0.789 0.467 0.043
probability of detection:
0.789 0.467 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.615 0.588 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.615 0.588 0.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00