CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
5
6
5
3
10
18
13
12
8
33
19
15
23
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
5
6
5
3
10
18
13
12
8
33
19
15
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
9
11
9
5
18
32
23
21
14
58
33
26
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
9
11
9
5
18
32
23
21
14
58
33
26
40
100

hitrate: 0.211 hitrate: 0.211
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 1.20 1.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 1.20 1.43
Heidke skill score: -0.184 Heidke skill score: -0.184
true Heidke skill score: -0.218 true Heidke skill score: -0.218
Kuipers skill score: -0.184 Kuipers skill score: -0.184
true Kuipers skill score: -0.215 true Kuipers skill score: -0.215
threat score:
0.042 0.100 0.167
threat score:
0.042 0.100 0.167
equitable threat score:
-0.045 -0.069 -0.153
equitable threat score:
-0.045 -0.069 -0.153
probability of detection:
0.053 0.200 0.348
probability of detection:
0.053 0.200 0.348
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.833 0.758
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.833 0.758
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00