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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
23
16
7
46
1
7
4
12
0
0
0
0
24
23
11
58

contingency table
fcst
obs
23
16
7
46
1
7
4
12
0
0
0
0
24
23
11
58

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
28
12
79
2
12
7
21
0
0
0
0
41
40
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
28
12
79
2
12
7
21
0
0
0
0
41
40
19
100

hitrate: 0.517 hitrate: 0.517
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.92 0.52 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.92 0.52 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.276 Heidke skill score: 0.276
true Heidke skill score: 0.181 true Heidke skill score: 0.181
Kuipers skill score: 0.276 Kuipers skill score: 0.276
true Kuipers skill score: 0.168 true Kuipers skill score: 0.168
threat score:
0.489 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.489 0.250 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.142 0.096 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.142 0.096 0.000
probability of detection:
0.958 0.304 0.000
probability of detection:
0.958 0.304 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.417 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.417 0.000
samples: 58 out of 58 samples: 58 out of 58
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00