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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
20
14
6
40
4
9
4
17
0
0
1
1
24
23
11
58

contingency table
fcst
obs
20
14
6
40
4
9
4
17
0
0
1
1
24
23
11
58

% contingency table
fcst
obs
34
24
10
69
7
16
7
29
0
0
2
2
41
40
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
34
24
10
69
7
16
7
29
0
0
2
2
41
40
19
100

hitrate: 0.517 hitrate: 0.517
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.74 0.09
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.74 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.276 Heidke skill score: 0.276
true Heidke skill score: 0.189 true Heidke skill score: 0.189
Kuipers skill score: 0.276 Kuipers skill score: 0.276
true Kuipers skill score: 0.177 true Kuipers skill score: 0.177
threat score:
0.455 0.290 0.091
threat score:
0.455 0.290 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.126 0.093 0.075
equitable threat score:
0.126 0.093 0.075
probability of detection:
0.833 0.391 0.091
probability of detection:
0.833 0.391 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.471 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.471 0.000
samples: 58 out of 58 samples: 58 out of 58
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00