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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
6
7
10
1
18
17
11
6
34
24
23
11
58

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
6
7
10
1
18
17
11
6
34
24
23
11
58

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
7
10
12
17
2
31
29
19
10
59
41
40
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
7
10
12
17
2
31
29
19
10
59
41
40
19
100

hitrate: 0.276 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.78 3.09
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.78 3.09
Heidke skill score: -0.086 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: -0.002 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.086 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: -0.002 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.000 0.323 0.154
threat score:
0.000 0.323 0.154
equitable threat score:
-0.090 0.120 -0.014
equitable threat score:
-0.090 0.120 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 0.435 0.545
probability of detection:
0.000 0.435 0.545
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.444 0.824
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.444 0.824
samples: 58 out of 58 samples: 58 out of 58
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00