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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
11
11
39
4
6
7
17
0
0
1
1
21
17
19
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
11
11
39
4
6
7
17
0
0
1
1
21
17
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
19
19
68
7
11
12
30
0
0
2
2
37
30
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
19
19
68
7
11
12
30
0
0
2
2
37
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.421 hitrate: 0.421
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.86 1.00 0.05
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.86 1.00 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.132 Heidke skill score: 0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.114 true Heidke skill score: 0.114
Kuipers skill score: 0.132 Kuipers skill score: 0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.112 true Kuipers skill score: 0.112
threat score:
0.395 0.214 0.053
threat score:
0.395 0.214 0.053
equitable threat score:
0.092 0.041 0.036
equitable threat score:
0.092 0.041 0.036
probability of detection:
0.810 0.353 0.053
probability of detection:
0.810 0.353 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.564 0.647 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.564 0.647 0.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00