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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
10
6
2
18
11
10
12
33
21
17
19
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
10
6
2
18
11
10
12
33
21
17
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
18
11
4
32
19
18
21
58
37
30
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
18
11
4
32
19
18
21
58
37
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.316 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 1.06 1.74		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 1.06 1.74
Heidke skill score: -0.026 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.015 true Heidke skill score: -0.015
Kuipers skill score: -0.026 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.015 true Kuipers skill score: -0.015
threat score:
0.000 0.207 0.300		 threat score:
0.000 0.207 0.300
equitable threat score:
-0.089 0.027 0.034		 equitable threat score:
-0.089 0.027 0.034
probability of detection:
0.000 0.353 0.632		 probability of detection:
0.000 0.353 0.632
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.636		 false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.636
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00