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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
11
14
39
4
3
10
17
0
0
1
1
18
14
25
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
11
14
39
4
3
10
17
0
0
1
1
18
14
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
19
25
68
7
5
18
30
0
0
2
2
32
25
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
19
25
68
7
5
18
30
0
0
2
2
32
25
44
100

hitrate: 0.316 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.17 1.21 0.04
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.17 1.21 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.026 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.027 true Heidke skill score: 0.027
Kuipers skill score: -0.026 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.029 true Kuipers skill score: 0.029
threat score:
0.326 0.107 0.040
threat score:
0.326 0.107 0.040
equitable threat score:
0.055 -0.049 0.023
equitable threat score:
0.055 -0.049 0.023
probability of detection:
0.778 0.214 0.040
probability of detection:
0.778 0.214 0.040
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.641 0.824 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.641 0.824 0.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00