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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
10
4
4
18
8
9
16
33
18
14
25
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
10
4
4
18
8
9
16
33
18
14
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
18
7
7
32
14
16
28
58
32
25
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
18
7
7
32
14
16
28
58
32
25
44
100

hitrate: 0.351 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.29 1.32
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.29 1.32
Heidke skill score: 0.026 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.022 true Heidke skill score: -0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.026 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.021 true Kuipers skill score: -0.021
threat score:
0.000 0.143 0.381
threat score:
0.000 0.143 0.381
equitable threat score:
-0.086 -0.018 0.055
equitable threat score:
-0.086 -0.018 0.055
probability of detection:
0.000 0.286 0.640
probability of detection:
0.000 0.286 0.640
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.778 0.515
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.778 0.515
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00