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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
14
21
51
2
1
2
5
1
0
0
1
19
15
23
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
14
21
51
2
1
2
5
1
0
0
1
19
15
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
25
37
89
4
2
4
9
2
0
0
2
33
26
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
25
37
89
4
2
4
9
2
0
0
2
33
26
40
100

hitrate: 0.298 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.68 0.33 0.04
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.68 0.33 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.053 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.045 true Heidke skill score: -0.045
Kuipers skill score: -0.053 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.046 true Kuipers skill score: -0.046
threat score:
0.296 0.053 0.000
threat score:
0.296 0.053 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.027 -0.018 -0.017
equitable threat score:
-0.027 -0.018 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.842 0.067 0.000
probability of detection:
0.842 0.067 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.686 0.800 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.686 0.800 1.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00