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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
12
14
39
6
3
8
17
0
0
1
1
19
15
23
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
12
14
39
6
3
8
17
0
0
1
1
19
15
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
21
25
68
11
5
14
30
0
0
2
2
33
26
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
21
25
68
11
5
14
30
0
0
2
2
33
26
40
100

hitrate: 0.298 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.05 1.13 0.04
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.05 1.13 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.053 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.022 true Heidke skill score: -0.022
Kuipers skill score: -0.053 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.023 true Kuipers skill score: -0.023
threat score:
0.289 0.103 0.043
threat score:
0.289 0.103 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.060 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.060 0.026
probability of detection:
0.684 0.200 0.043
probability of detection:
0.684 0.200 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.824 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.824 0.000
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00