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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
8
5
5
18
11
9
13
33
19
15
23
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
8
5
5
18
11
9
13
33
19
15
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
14
9
9
32
19
16
23
58
33
26
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
14
9
9
32
19
16
23
58
33
26
40
100

hitrate: 0.316 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 1.20 1.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 1.20 1.43
Heidke skill score: -0.026 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.056 true Heidke skill score: -0.056
Kuipers skill score: -0.026 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.055 true Kuipers skill score: -0.055
threat score:
0.000 0.179 0.302
threat score:
0.000 0.179 0.302
equitable threat score:
-0.087 0.011 -0.011
equitable threat score:
-0.087 0.011 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.565
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.565
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.722 0.606
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.722 0.606
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00