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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
14
15
38
3
2
4
9
4
2
4
10
16
18
23
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
14
15
38
3
2
4
9
4
2
4
10
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
25
26
67
5
4
7
16
7
4
7
18
28
32
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
25
26
67
5
4
7
16
7
4
7
18
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 0.263 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.38 0.50 0.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.38 0.50 0.43
Heidke skill score: -0.105 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: -0.064 true Heidke skill score: -0.064
Kuipers skill score: -0.105 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: -0.068 true Kuipers skill score: -0.068
threat score:
0.200 0.080 0.138
threat score:
0.200 0.080 0.138
equitable threat score:
-0.049 -0.038 -0.001
equitable threat score:
-0.049 -0.038 -0.001
probability of detection:
0.562 0.111 0.174
probability of detection:
0.562 0.111 0.174
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.763 0.778 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.763 0.778 0.600
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00