CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
15
14
41
4
1
5
10
0
2
4
6
16
18
23
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
15
14
41
4
1
5
10
0
2
4
6
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
26
25
72
7
2
9
18
0
4
7
11
28
32
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
26
25
72
7
2
9
18
0
4
7
11
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 0.298 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.56 0.56 0.26
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.56 0.56 0.26
Heidke skill score: -0.053 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.002 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.053 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.002 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.267 0.037 0.160
threat score:
0.267 0.037 0.160
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.091 0.070
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.091 0.070
probability of detection:
0.750 0.056 0.174
probability of detection:
0.750 0.056 0.174
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.707 0.900 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.707 0.900 0.333
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00