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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
1
3
16
3
3
5
11
6
7
17
30
21
11
25
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
1
3
16
3
3
5
11
6
7
17
30
21
11
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
2
5
28
5
5
9
19
11
12
30
53
37
19
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
2
5
28
5
5
9
19
11
12
30
53
37
19
44
100

hitrate: 0.561 hitrate: 0.561
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.76 1.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.76 1.00 1.20
Heidke skill score: 0.342 Heidke skill score: 0.342
true Heidke skill score: 0.302 true Heidke skill score: 0.302
Kuipers skill score: 0.342 Kuipers skill score: 0.342
true Kuipers skill score: 0.299 true Kuipers skill score: 0.299
threat score:
0.480 0.158 0.447
threat score:
0.480 0.158 0.447
equitable threat score:
0.320 0.052 0.155
equitable threat score:
0.320 0.052 0.155
probability of detection:
0.571 0.273 0.680
probability of detection:
0.571 0.273 0.680
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.727 0.433
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.727 0.433
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00