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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
16
27
4
4
6
14
9
4
3
16
21
11
25
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
16
27
4
4
6
14
9
4
3
16
21
11
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
5
28
47
7
7
11
25
16
7
5
28
37
19
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
5
28
47
7
7
11
25
16
7
5
28
37
19
44
100

hitrate: 0.263 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.29 1.27 0.64
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.29 1.27 0.64
Heidke skill score: -0.105 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: -0.125 true Heidke skill score: -0.125
Kuipers skill score: -0.105 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: -0.129 true Kuipers skill score: -0.129
threat score:
0.200 0.190 0.079
threat score:
0.200 0.190 0.079
equitable threat score:
-0.065 0.071 -0.130
equitable threat score:
-0.065 0.071 -0.130
probability of detection:
0.381 0.364 0.120
probability of detection:
0.381 0.364 0.120
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.704 0.714 0.812
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.704 0.714 0.812
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00