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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
5
6
7
1
10
18
13
10
10
33
21
11
25
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
5
6
7
1
10
18
13
10
10
33
21
11
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
9
11
12
2
18
32
23
18
18
58
37
19
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
9
11
12
2
18
32
23
18
18
58
37
19
44
100

hitrate: 0.211 hitrate: 0.211
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 1.64 1.32
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 1.64 1.32
Heidke skill score: -0.184 Heidke skill score: -0.184
true Heidke skill score: -0.221 true Heidke skill score: -0.221
Kuipers skill score: -0.184 Kuipers skill score: -0.184
true Kuipers skill score: -0.226 true Kuipers skill score: -0.226
threat score:
0.038 0.036 0.208
threat score:
0.038 0.036 0.208
equitable threat score:
-0.051 -0.101 -0.133
equitable threat score:
-0.051 -0.101 -0.133
probability of detection:
0.048 0.091 0.400
probability of detection:
0.048 0.091 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.944 0.697
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.944 0.697
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00