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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
5
9
22
4
7
8
19
4
7
5
16
16
19
22
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
5
9
22
4
7
8
19
4
7
5
16
16
19
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
9
16
39
7
12
14
33
7
12
9
28
28
33
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
9
16
39
7
12
14
33
7
12
9
28
28
33
39
100

hitrate: 0.351 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.38 1.00 0.73		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.38 1.00 0.73
Heidke skill score: 0.026 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.034 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: 0.026 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.035 true Kuipers skill score: 0.035
threat score:
0.267 0.226 0.152		 threat score:
0.267 0.226 0.152
equitable threat score:
0.077 0.027 -0.044		 equitable threat score:
0.077 0.027 -0.044
probability of detection:
0.500 0.368 0.227		 probability of detection:
0.500 0.368 0.227
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.636 0.632 0.688		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.636 0.632 0.688
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00