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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
5
6
20
2
3
3
8
5
11
13
29
16
19
22
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
5
6
20
2
3
3
8
5
11
13
29
16
19
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
9
11
35
4
5
5
14
9
19
23
51
28
33
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
9
11
35
4
5
5
14
9
19
23
51
28
33
39
100

hitrate: 0.439 hitrate: 0.439
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 0.42 1.32
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 0.42 1.32
Heidke skill score: 0.158 Heidke skill score: 0.158
true Heidke skill score: 0.147 true Heidke skill score: 0.147
Kuipers skill score: 0.158 Kuipers skill score: 0.158
true Kuipers skill score: 0.147 true Kuipers skill score: 0.147
threat score:
0.333 0.125 0.342
threat score:
0.333 0.125 0.342
equitable threat score:
0.158 0.016 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.158 0.016 0.067
probability of detection:
0.562 0.158 0.591
probability of detection:
0.562 0.158 0.591
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.550 0.625 0.552
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.550 0.625 0.552
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00