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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
5
3
4
12
10
15
16
41
16
19
22
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
5
3
4
12
10
15
16
41
16
19
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
4
7
9
5
7
21
18
26
28
72
28
33
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
4
7
9
5
7
21
18
26
28
72
28
33
39
100

hitrate: 0.351 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.63 1.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.63 1.86
Heidke skill score: 0.026 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.026 true Heidke skill score: -0.026
Kuipers skill score: 0.026 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.025 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.053 0.107 0.340
threat score:
0.053 0.107 0.340
equitable threat score:
-0.007 -0.042 0.006
equitable threat score:
-0.007 -0.042 0.006
probability of detection:
0.062 0.158 0.727
probability of detection:
0.062 0.158 0.727
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.750 0.610
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.750 0.610
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00