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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
9
7
22
7
5
7
19
7
4
5
16
20
18
19
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
9
7
22
7
5
7
19
7
4
5
16
20
18
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
16
12
39
12
9
12
33
12
7
9
28
35
32
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
16
12
39
12
9
12
33
12
7
9
28
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.281 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.10 1.06 0.84		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.10 1.06 0.84
Heidke skill score: -0.079 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: -0.080 true Heidke skill score: -0.080
Kuipers skill score: -0.079 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: -0.080 true Kuipers skill score: -0.080
threat score:
0.167 0.156 0.167		 threat score:
0.167 0.156 0.167
equitable threat score:
-0.061 -0.038 -0.014		 equitable threat score:
-0.061 -0.038 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.300 0.278 0.263		 probability of detection:
0.300 0.278 0.263
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.727 0.737 0.688		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.727 0.737 0.688
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00