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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
11
12
39
3
5
5
13
1
2
2
5
20
18
19
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
11
12
39
3
5
5
13
1
2
2
5
20
18
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
19
21
68
5
9
9
23
2
4
4
9
35
32
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
19
21
68
5
9
9
23
2
4
4
9
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.404 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.95 0.72 0.26
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.95 0.72 0.26
Heidke skill score: 0.105 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.094 true Heidke skill score: 0.094
Kuipers skill score: 0.105 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.093 true Kuipers skill score: 0.093
threat score:
0.372 0.192 0.091
threat score:
0.372 0.192 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.079 0.041 0.016
equitable threat score:
0.079 0.041 0.016
probability of detection:
0.800 0.278 0.105
probability of detection:
0.800 0.278 0.105
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.590 0.615 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.590 0.615 0.600
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00