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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
10
6
24
2
2
6
10
10
6
7
23
20
18
19
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
10
6
24
2
2
6
10
10
6
7
23
20
18
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
18
11
42
4
4
11
18
18
11
12
40
35
32
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
18
11
42
4
4
11
18
18
11
12
40
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.298 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 0.56 1.21
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 0.56 1.21
Heidke skill score: -0.053 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.059 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: -0.053 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.059 true Kuipers skill score: -0.059
threat score:
0.222 0.077 0.200
threat score:
0.222 0.077 0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.051 -0.024
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.051 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.400 0.111 0.368
probability of detection:
0.400 0.111 0.368
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.800 0.696
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.800 0.696
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00