CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
9
8
25
4
5
10
19
3
8
2
13
15
22
20
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
9
8
25
4
5
10
19
3
8
2
13
15
22
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
16
14
44
7
9
18
33
5
14
4
23
26
39
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
16
14
44
7
9
18
33
5
14
4
23
26
39
35
100

hitrate: 0.263 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.86 0.65
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.86 0.65
Heidke skill score: -0.105 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: -0.090 true Heidke skill score: -0.090
Kuipers skill score: -0.105 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: -0.093 true Kuipers skill score: -0.093
threat score:
0.250 0.139 0.065
threat score:
0.250 0.139 0.065
equitable threat score:
0.056 -0.081 -0.097
equitable threat score:
0.056 -0.081 -0.097
probability of detection:
0.533 0.227 0.100
probability of detection:
0.533 0.227 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.680 0.737 0.846
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.680 0.737 0.846
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00