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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
14
14
39
3
6
4
13
1
2
2
5
15
22
20
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
14
14
39
3
6
4
13
1
2
2
5
15
22
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
25
25
68
5
11
7
23
2
4
4
9
26
39
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
25
25
68
5
11
7
23
2
4
4
9
26
39
35
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.60 0.59 0.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.60 0.59 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.049 true Heidke skill score: 0.049
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.052 true Kuipers skill score: 0.052
threat score:
0.256 0.207 0.087
threat score:
0.256 0.207 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.023 0.041 0.012
equitable threat score:
0.023 0.041 0.012
probability of detection:
0.733 0.273 0.100
probability of detection:
0.733 0.273 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.718 0.538 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.718 0.538 0.600
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00