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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
9
11
27
5
7
7
19
3
6
2
11
15
22
20
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
9
11
27
5
7
7
19
3
6
2
11
15
22
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
16
19
47
9
12
12
33
5
11
4
19
26
39
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
16
19
47
9
12
12
33
5
11
4
19
26
39
35
100

hitrate: 0.281 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.80 0.86 0.55
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.80 0.86 0.55
Heidke skill score: -0.079 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: -0.059 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: -0.079 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: -0.061 true Kuipers skill score: -0.061
threat score:
0.200 0.206 0.069
threat score:
0.200 0.206 0.069
equitable threat score:
-0.004 -0.013 -0.074
equitable threat score:
-0.004 -0.013 -0.074
probability of detection:
0.467 0.318 0.100
probability of detection:
0.467 0.318 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.741 0.632 0.818
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.741 0.632 0.818
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00