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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
13
25
3
7
9
19
4
7
2
13
11
22
24
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
13
25
3
7
9
19
4
7
2
13
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
14
23
44
5
12
16
33
7
12
4
23
19
39
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
14
23
44
5
12
16
33
7
12
4
23
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.228 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.27 0.86 0.54
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.27 0.86 0.54
Heidke skill score: -0.158 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: -0.118 true Heidke skill score: -0.118
Kuipers skill score: -0.158 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: -0.128 true Kuipers skill score: -0.128
threat score:
0.125 0.206 0.057
threat score:
0.125 0.206 0.057
equitable threat score:
-0.030 -0.013 -0.118
equitable threat score:
-0.030 -0.013 -0.118
probability of detection:
0.364 0.318 0.083
probability of detection:
0.364 0.318 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.840 0.632 0.846
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.840 0.632 0.846
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00